Baseball Chatter

Opening Week Surprises

As baseball is wrapping up its first week of the season, we have seen our fair share of surprises. Now granted, there are always going to be stats that make you go wow, but keep in mind most teams have only played 4 games, and the stats are very misleading at this point. But it's still fun to take a look at some of the numbers. Who would have thought that...

The Tigers would be 4-0

The Brewers would be 3-1

Victor Zambrano would be 2-0, both wins against the Yankees

Ronnie Belliard would be the second leading batter in the AL

Bobby Higginson would be second in the AL in RBI

Craig Wilson, Brady Clark, and Eric Munson would have as many combined homeruns than ARod, Bonds, Carlos Delgado, Jim Thome, Richie Sexson, Sammy Sosa, and Jason Giambi

Those are just a few that I have noticed, and I'm sure that there are many more. Again, these numbers mean nothing this early in the season, but they are still fun to look at. As it is, baseball has started again and I am happy. Things are good in my household. I look forward to the Red Sox dominance this year.

For comments, questions, suggestions, or whatever, feel free to email me

Very very busy

Hey all, sorry about my lack of posting. I have been extremely busy lately, and I have hardly been home the past few days. Unfortunately, I won't have much time until the summer comes around with school and all, but I do still plan to write on this website, but just not as frequent as I would like. I hope to at the very least update once a week, but it all depends on how much time I have to myself. Keep in mind that this is only until about the end of May, when I should have more time to blog. Anyways, I thought I would take the few minutes that I do have to let you guys know that I might not update as frequently as before.

Nevertheless, Opening Day (part III) has come and gone and baseball is in full swing again. This is my favorite time of the year, between baseball and the start of warm weather and spring. I have to run, though. Look for an update within the next couple of days, when I should get some free time during the Easter Holidays. Which reminds me, if I don't get to updating before Easter...Happy Easter!

For comments, questions, suggestions, or whatever, feel free to email me

NL Predictions

Well, here you have it. 11:45 at night, just got done watching Georgia Tech get pounded, and I have school tomorrow morning, but here I am writing. I should probably get my priorities straight and get some sleep, but oh well.

Some notes before I start...

Be sure to check out Talking Baseball, a site with some great stuff that is updated pretty much every day. Stop by the other blogs on my sidebar too. As you can see, I don't have very many right now, but those are some good ones and I'm planning to add more in the future.

I spoke way too soon yesterday with my predictions. First of all, I predicted the Red Sox over the Orioles by 4, but instead it was the Orioles winning 7-2. I could take the easy way out, hit the edit button, and edit that part out of my post, but I have much more integrity than that, and I need to admit my mistakes.

Also, I had Javy Lopez as my AL Bust this year, predicting much lower numbers in Baltimore. But, of course, he jacks one on the first pitch he saw yesterday, off Pedro Martinez, of all people. But, I stand by my pick in saying that he still won't put up big numbers this year. I'll be keeping an eye on him.

On to the predictions.

NL East

1. Philadelphia
2. Atlanta
3. Florida
4. New York
5. Montreal

This is a pretty strong division top to bottom, and it really could wind up in any order. But here's my order. The Braves will lose their first division title in a decade, and the defending champs will miss the playoffs. Philadelphia will win more games simply because of their new rock-solid closer Billy Wagner.

NL Central

1. Chicago
2. Houston
3. St. Louis
4. Cincinnati
5. Pittsburgh
6. Milwaukee

The top three in this division are as good as any other division's top three, and, like the East, the top three could wind up in any order. But this is how I see it for now. The Cub's pitching is just too good, especially when they get Mark Prior back, most likely sometime in May (I hope). Houston's rotation looks good on paper, but will struggle. Their offense will carry the load. And St. Louis doesn't have a bad team either. This could be an interesting race, and it's too bad all three can't make the playoffs.

NL West

1. Arizona
2. San Francisco
3. San Diego
4. Los Angeles
5. Colorado

Arizona wins the division based on the performances of Randy Johnson and Brandon Webb. I think both will win 15-20 games and have an ERA in the low threes. San Francisco will again be in the hunt because of Barry Lamar Bonds, but I see thim falling short of the playoffs. San Diego will also be decent, with Brian Giles in the house.

Playoffs

Houston over Philadelphia
Chicago over Arizona

Chicago over Houston

Houston's rotation will go on a hot streak, and will lift them over the Phillies in 6, while the Cubs dispose of the DBacks in 5 games.

World Series
Boston over Chicago

I know a lot of people are picking this to be the World Series, but I think that this year is as good a year as any for it to happen. Chicago will ultimately have to wait even longer for their title, and will lose to Boston in 6 games. Pedro will have a shutout, Manny will have a grandslam, and Nomar will bat .400 in the series. Mark my words.

Now to the awards...

MVP- Albert Pujols

Not much of a surprise here. Pujols is just solid. I wrote about him in my March 28 post, about how he has got so good so fast. He won't slow down this year. Expect him to flirt with the Triple Crown, and maybe even pull it off. Either way, he'll put up monster numbers. Final stat line: .354, 47 HR, 133 RBI.

Cy Young- Mark Prior

May be a bit of a stretch considering the extent of his injuries, but even if he gets back by late May, which is about the worst case scenario, he will only have missed about 5 or 6 starts. In the whole scheme of things, there isn't too much of a difference between 30 GS and 35 GS. He will put up huge numbers after he returns. Maybe not right away, but for sure after the All-Star break. Final stat line: 19-5, 2.88 ERA, 212 K.

Rookie- Khalil Greene

I had the privelege of watching this guy at the College World Series a couple years ago when he played for Clemson. And let me tell you, he was something else. He was batting something like .485 with 30 HR or something going into the Series, and he didn't let up in the Series, not to mention he played great defense. He has the potential to do some huge things, and I think that we will see some of that potential this year. Final stat line: .285, 21 HR, 78 RBI.

Sleeper- Jose Reyes

I don't know if you can call him a sleeper, but I guess the name for this award would more appropriately be called the Breakout award. I think Reyes will do better than expected of him, even with his nagging leg injuries. He should join some of the elite shortstops in the game soon. Final stat line: .313, 19 HR, 87 RBI, 30 SB.

Bust- Scott Podsednik

Podsednik put up ridiculous numbers last year as a virtually unknown rookie who was called up a ways into last season. The fact is, he doesn't have a world of talent, and pitchers will start to figure him out. He will still get some steals, but expect a significant dip in his average. Final stat line: .262, 11 HR, 49 RBI, 31 SB.

Comeback- Randy Johnson

Had his worst season statistically last year since 1989. Almost all of that was due to injuries, and he is primed for a comeback this year. I know he's 40, but no one ever told Nolan Ryan that you had to be young to be good. Johnson has seemed to get better with age, much like Ryan, and he will bounce back this year to put up his Randy-esque numbers we are used to seeing. Don't be surprised to see his name on the Cy Young ballots, either. Barring injuries, of course, but I think that he will stay healthy this year. Final stat line: 19-6, 3.12 ERA, 312 K.

Well, there are my predictions. They probably won't turn out to be very accurate when I look back at them at the end of the season, but you never know. I need to get some sleep.


For comments, questions, suggestions, or whatever, feel free to email me

AL Predictions

It seems like every blog out there has some sort of season predictions. I might as well too. The season kicks off tonight, with my Sox playing the Orioles. My prediction is Sox by 4. Now to my full season predictions.

AL East

1. Boston
2. New York
3. Baltimore
4. Toronto
5. Tampa Bay

Nothing surprising here, since the Red Sox are obviously going to win. I think that the acquisitions of Miguel Tejada and Javy Lopez will pull the Orioles out of the fourth place hole they have been sitting in for, what is it, 5 years now? Something like that. I think that they will finally move up, but won't come close to catching the big dogs.

AL Central

1. Minnesota
2. Kansas City
3. Chicago
4. Detroit
5. Cleveland

I'm going out on a limb here, putting Detroit in the four spot ahead of Cleveland. Don't ask me why, but I decided to go with my gut. The race for the top spot will be very close, but I think Kansas City falls just short again, especially if they get rid of Carlos Beltran. The weakest division in baseball, by far. The first two teams probably couldn't finish second let alone first in any of the other leagues.

AL West

1. Oakland
2. Anaheim
3. Seattle
4. Texas

I think that Oakland's pitching is too strong for them to go on many long losing streaks. They play consistent baseball, and probably won't blow anyone out of the water with their offense. Look for most of their games to be low scoring. Anaheim will be good, and they loaded their lineup in the offseason with Vladimir Guerrero and Bartolo Colon. Seattle is good, but not good enough to compete with the top two. But they could probably finish first in the Central.

Playoffs

Boston over Anaheim (wild card)
Minnesota over Oakland

Boston over Minnesota

I like Anaheim getting the wild card over those durn Yankees. Their lineup is great this year, with Guerrero, Garret Anderson, and Jose Guillen. I know the Yankees have an even better lineup, but I think that their chemistry will play a factor in their performance. They just have too many superstars, if that's possible.

I know that I said that the Central was the weakest division, but I still like Minnesota beating Oakland behind the arm of Johan Santana, who will be awesome this year. In the ALCS, I of course have Boston beating Minnesota, both because the Red Sox are my favorite team, and that they are frigg'n good. On to my awards.

MVP - Vladimir Guerrero

In my opinion, this guy will thrive in Anaheim. He finally got away from that artificial turf in Montreal and he will join Alex Rodriguez, Jose Canseco, and Barry Bonds in the 40/40 club. Final stat line: .329, 42 HR, 121 RBI, 40 SB. Big predictions, but he without a doubt has the talent, not to mention the lineup, finally, to do it.

Cy Young- Johan Santana

No, that's not a misprint. This guy has filthy stuff. He will finally get a chance to start 30+ games, and, judging by his numbers in the past, he will be successful. Final stat line: 19-6, 2.78 ERA, 241 K.

Rookie- Bobby Crosby

Not much of a surprise here. Crosby has no major league experience, but he more than held his own in the minors last year, hitting 20 homers and stealing 20 bags while posting a .300 average. He won't have quite the success this year in the majors, but he does have a good power/speed combo which will do well at any level. He also plays great defense. Final stat line: .276, 18 HR, 80 RBI, 22 SB.

Sleeper- Rafael Soriano

Soriano is not very well known yet, but he will make a splash this season. He is currently sitting in the Seattle bullpen, but look for him to take a starting spot if one of the starters goes down or is struggling. His stuff is flat out sick, and soon people will stop referring to him as 'the other Soriano.' Final stat line: 11-4, 3.32 ERA, 113 K.

Bust- Javy Lopez

There is no way Lopez will carry his success from last year, when he jacked 43 and drove in 109 (steroids, anyone?), into this year. Lopez averaged just over 15 homeruns in his previous 4 seasons before last year, and look for him to come back down to earth. He will still put up decent numbers, but no the kind we saw last year. Final stat line: .280, 21 HR, 81 RBI.

Comeback- Paul Konerko

Konerko was just awful last year, and there really wasn't much of an explanation for it. But, he heated up in the second half (+.78 BA, +8 HR, +21 RBI), and that momentum will carry into this year. He seemed to have found his stroke and will return to his old self. Final stat line: ..296, 30 HR, 98 RBI.

So there you have it. I hope to be back tomorrow with my NL predictions, but I can't make any guarantees with the National Championship on tomorrow night. We'll see. Enjoy the thrashing of the O's tonight.


For comments, questions, suggestions, or whatever, feel free to email me

"Are you serious?"

You know that it was only a matter of time before I brought up the topic of steroids. You may have heard recently about former Cy Young winner Jack McDowell, and how he accuses my boy Mark Prior of using steroids. My reaction to this comment was much like Prior's.

"Do I look like I'm on steroids?" Prior told MLB.com on Thursday. "That's the first I heard. Was he serious? I guess the best thing I can say is obviously I'm not; I don't know why he would say that.

I completely agree with Prior. Is this guy serious? I can't imagine what was going through McDowell's head when he picked out Prior, of all people, and accused him of steroid use. It just doesn't make any sense.

Prior has always been a big guy, even in college. And it's not like this guy just came out of nowhere last year to finish third in the Cy Young race, unlike Brady Anderson, who "magically" increased his homerun total by 34 from 16 to 50 in '96, only to see the number fall back to 18 the following year. Anyways, there's no obvious evidence that Prior is on steroids, unlike Anderson, who to this day I believe still denies using steroids that year.

McDowell's reason for his suspicion is that Prior's muscles got too strong for his tendons by using steroids, which led to his Achilles tendon injury that will keep him out it appears for at least a month (which really hurts my fantasy team). Maybe it's just me, but I believe that there have been plenty of Achilles tendon and any other tendon injuries in the past year. I don't know. Maybe not. Maybe those types of injuries are so rare that when someone comes down with it, it's only fair to assume that they are on steroids. Give me a break. But then again I lost all respect and McDowell lost all his credibility after giving his home fans the bird as he was walking off the mound, because the fans were booing him of a poor performance, something all too common in the waning years of his career. Good call, Jack. That'll show those fans.

My hypothesis on what was going through McDowell's head is something along these lines. 'Hmm...I've been the pride of all Chicago pitchers in the past two decades. It seems like this Prior fellow could take over my title. Hey! Steroids have been a big issue recently. Why not blame Prior with steroid use? His credibility and respect will go down the drain, thus preserving my position as the Chicago pitcher everyone remembers. I am a genius.'

Alright, it probably wasn't quite like that, but I can't think of a reason why McDowell, of all people, would accuse Prior, of all people, of such a thing as using steroids. Maybe Prior will take the tests, and we'll all find out that he indeed did use steroids, and McDowell was right all along. But I can't see that happening. Of course, I am probably biased because Prior is one of my favorite players, and I don't really like McDowell, especially now. But I think that most people share my opinion that McDowell is insane, and probably has ADD.

On another note...

On another note, I was happy to see that Sports Illustrated recently published an article in thier baseball preview issue on clutch hitting and wheter or not it really existed. I wrote something similar to that on my March 27th post. It is nice to know that I am picking good topics, at least, if something similar can be written in Sports Illustrated. But I do have a ways to go before my quality matches those guys.


For comments, questions, suggestions, or whatever, feel free to email me

The Curse Continues

Ah...just what I wanted to hear. The Red Sox now have 3 regulars on the DL. Nomar Garciaparra was put on the DL on Wednesday, to join Trot Nixon and Byung Hyun Kim. Another Red Sock (is that what you would call one?) on the DL is Reynaldo Garcia, who, to be honest with you, I've never heard of.

The shortstop formerly known as Anthony is, for those of you who don't know, my all-time favorite player. There is always a guy that everyone roots for, and I'm guessing that a fair share of people root for him. How could you not? I can't think of one thing not to like about him. But that's just me.

Nevertheless, the Red Sox opening day lineup looks a lot thinner. They still got Pedro and Curt (if Pedro can be called by his first name only, why not Schilling?) to anchor the rotation. While the loss of Kim and Garcia aren't devastating, especially considering each won't be watching from the bench for too long, the staff's depth is that much less. Here's their projected offseason lineup compared to their lineup now.

Then                          Now

CF Johnny Damon               CF Johnny Damon

3B Bill Mueller               3B Bill Mueller

LF Manny Ramirez              LF Manny Ramirez

SS Nomar Garciaparra          DH David Ortiz

DH David Ortiz                1B Kevin Millar

RF Trot Nixon                  C Jason Varitek

1B Kevin Millar               RF Gabe Kapler              

 C Jason Varitek              2B Mark Bellhorn

2B Pokey Reese                SS Pokey Reese

The first third of their lineup is the same, but after that it gets shaky. The only good thing about this lineup is that David Ortiz bats cleanup in this new lineup, who is on my fantasy team, and, if nothing else, should increase his power numbers for the first month of the season.

Now, I'm not panicking, since the guys on the DL are only out for a month at the most. And, they still have their entire pitching rotation in tact, with Pedro, Curt, Derek Lowe, Tim Wakefield, and Bronson Arroyo. Kim was set to be in the rotation in the offseason, but he has been injured for a while and his absence from the starting rotation didn't come as quite of a surprise as Garciaparra's announcement did.

While the Red Sox are not in trouble by any means, it could be harder for them to start the season on the right foot. With all the injuries to overcome, it will be hard to build some momentum. Their opening day lineup isn't bad, but I certainly would be less nervous without all the injuries. You never know when Nomar's achilles tendon and put him out until the all-star break. For now, I guess the Red Sox will have to play the cards they're dealt.


For comments, questions, suggestions, or whatever, feel free to email me

Don't expect another dream season

As much as I hate to say it because I love the Marlins (not as much as the Red Sox, though), Don't expect a repeat this year. I mean let's face it. The Marlins had the baseball gods smiling down on them last year. Everything went right for them, especially down the stretch. But unfortunately, these things don't happen two years in a row. That's not the only reason they are destined to be a weaker team. Take a look at their offseason losses and acquisitions.

Players Acquired          Players Lost 

RP Armando Benitez        C Ivan Rodriguez 

1B Hee Seop Choi          1B Derek Lee

SP/RP Darren Oliver       LF Todd Hollandsworth

RP Mike Neu               RF Juan Encarnacion 

1B/OF Wil Cordero         SP Mark Redman 

RP Bryce Florie           CL Ugueth Urbina 

RP Matt Perisho           RP Braden Looper 

RP Scott Sanders          OF Chad Allen 

IF Felipe Crespo          RP Armando Almanza  

2B/3B Damian Easley       RP Vladimir Nunez  

OF Ryan Christenson       SP Rick Helling  

OF Armando Rios           RP Kevin Olsen

Their only significant acquisition was Armando Benitez, who is set to be their closer. Other than that, the only other guy who I can really say will make any impact this year is Hee Seop Choi, a promising prospect who could do some things this year, but not enough to make too much of a difference. I guess Damion Easley could do something, since he is so good (since sarcasm isn't too easily displayed through writing, I will just go out and tell you that I am being sarcastic, and laying it on pretty thickly). In my opinion Easley is (or was, I'm not so sure about people's opinion of him now) the most overrated and overpaid player in the game. But that's a whole different story.

Compare those players to the players they lost, and you will see my point. Among the players who packed up and headed out were 3 offensive starters (Lee, Encarnacion, and Rodriguez, their team captain), a solid starter (Redman), and their two best relievers (Looper and Urbina). Some of the guys, like Lee and Rodriguez, were more or less irreplaceable. Benitez pretty much takes the place of Urbina and Looper, as far as being a closer, but two heads are always better than one.

You also can't expect guys like Mike Lowell, who had career highs in HR, RBI, OBP, and SLG last season, Dontrelle Willis, who was successful early but then faded towards the end of the season, and Redman, who had career highs in wins, K's, and ERA last season, to keep up their success. These guys won't have the same season as they did last year, with the exception of maybe Willis. He just isn't experienced enough and is too inconsistent to convince me that he will put up similar numbers this year.

Alright, enough with the bad. The Marlins do have plenty of things going for them, just not as much as they have going against him. But, that's what we were saying all last year when they were making their run, and all year in '97. Up and coming star Miguel Cabrera is primed for a breakout year after his success in the playoffs last year and his experience, both in the playoffs and regular season. This guy has enormous talent, and I think we'll see some of it this year. Also, Juan Pierre has suddenly become one of the best leadoff men in the game, with his combination of speed and contact power, striking out only 131 times in his 2077 career AB. His defense is also superb and he brings a spark to the team.

Luis Castillo couldn't have been more inconsistent on the basepaths last year, but I'm expecting him to go back to his 2002 form. He should add a lot to the team. The Marlins will also welcome back the return of AJ Burnett, who was considered the team ace before his season ended after an elbow injury after only 23 IP. The Marlins also have a sparkling team chemistry, which led to their success last year.

Don't get me wrong, the Marlins have plenty of things going for them. But I just don't think it's enough to override all the players they lost in the offseason. I wish the best for the Fish, but I'm not expecting anything big. 90 wins isn't out of the question, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if they made the playoffs, but they won't get as far as they did last season.


For comments, questions, suggestions, or whatever, feel free to email me

Good Company

I can't remember a player who got as good as he is as fast as he did as Albert Pujols. It's simply amazing what he has done, and even more so when you consider that he is only 24.

Most players begin their careers with a couple years of 'training,' where they get limited playing time, and their numbers are usually mediocre. This is usually because of their age - most players simply can't adjust from the minors or college/high school to the majors without some time and experience. That wasn't the case with Pujols, however. Take a look at some other similar players' first season and their stats, compared to Pujols.

Player                 G    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO     BA   OBP   SLG   

Frank Thomas          60   191   39   63   11   3   7   31   44   54   .330  .454  .529

Vladimir Guerrero     90   325   44   98   22   2  11   40   19   39   .302  .350  .483  

Todd Helton           35    93   13   26    2   1   5   11    8   11   .280  .337  .484

Barry Bonds          113   413   72   92   26   3  16   48   65  102   .223  .330  .416

Manny Ramirez         91   290   51   78   22   0  17   60   42   72   .269  .357  .521

Jim Thome             40   117    8   24    3   1   2   12   10   34   .205  .275  .299

Alex Rodriguez        48   142   15   33    6   2   5   19    6   42   .232  .264  .408

Albert Pujols        161   590  112  194   47   4  37  130   69   93   .329  .403  .610

If you're picky and checked the numbers, you will notice that with most of the players, I disregarded the very first season that they played in, since the numbers on that year mostly consisted of 20-30 games and less than 100 AB, which would be unfair to compare with. So, most of these numbers are a player's second actual season, where they put together a more complete season.

But not with Pujols. Going into 2001, Pujols had a grand total of 0 major league AB. He had absolutely no major league experience going into that season. He didn't know what to expect, how much better the defense and pitchers were in the majors compared to the minors, and the mental and physical drain it puts on you. Yet he still doubled and in some cases tripled or more in the major stat categories compared to the other players on that list, most of whom already had some prior major league experience in his first year.

What makes Pujols' splash on the major league scene even more remarkable is Pujols' minor league numbers, which relatively, weren't too eye-popping. Certainly not enough to predict his instant success in the majors. Pujols only played one year in the minors:

  G   AB   R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO   BA   SLG

133  490  74  154  41   7  19   96   40   47  .314  .543

Those numbers aren't bad, but they aren't staggering. So, before his 2001 breakout season, he had 0 major league AB and only one minor league season under his belt. This guy was pretty much straight out of college, which is remarkable considering how many players have to spend 3 to 4 years in the minors before even making the Major League roster. Add the fact that he was drafted in the 19th round of the amateur draft and it makes his success even more surprising.

To go along with his exceptional offensive abilities, Pujols isn't a slouch on defense either. He's played 4 different positions during his 3 seasons, something that is harder to do than it may seem. Lots of players experience offensive droughts if they change positions, due to many different factors. A player may lose confidence on offense after making lots of errors on defense. A player may have a harder time focusing on offense if they are learning a new position. That hasn't been the case for Pujols. He has a career .978 defensive percentage combined at his positions. He seems to have found a home in left field, for now.

The bottom line is that Pujols is definitely headed on the right track. Take a look at similar players to Pujols by age, you will find a pretty nice looking list.

Joe DiMaggio (951)

Jimmie Foxx (917)

Hal Trosky (902) 

Joe Medwick (893)

Hank Aaron (893)

Vladimir Guerrero (889) 

Frank Robinson (882)

Orlando Cepeda (878)

Ted Williams (877)

Stan Musial (873)

Each player on the list is a hall-of-famer, with the exception of Hal Trosky, and Vladimir Guerrero, who in my opinion is well on his way to a place in Cooperstown. That's some pretty good company to be in.

Most people don't realize just how good Pujols is, and just how remarkable his succes has been. No other player has had more success so early in his career, and the only similar one I can think of off-hand is Joe DiMaggio. The thing that makes it so incredible is the fact that Pujols had no major league experience, only one minor league season, and was never a highly heralded prospect going into his first Major League year. He still managed to put up MVP numbers despite all these opposing factors and despite the fact that he was 21, which to put in perspective is barely old enough to hit the bars after a game. I'm not sure if we'll ever see a player like Pujols again in baseball.


For comments, questions, suggestions, or whatever, feel free to email me

Clutch Time

When you think of clutch hitters in the playoffs, more specifically the World Series, who comes to your mind first? Reggie Jackson? Derek Jeter? Joe Carter? Kirk Gibson? Bobby Brown?

Wait wait wait wait...Bobby Brown? He didn't come to mind? Believe it or not, Brown has the all-time leading postseason and World Series batting average, with a 40 AB minimum. No, not Bobby Brown the rapper. But Bobby Brown the New York Yankee, who played from 1946-54. Take a look at Brown's career numbers.

       Reg Season     Playoffs          Diff 

BA           .279         .439         +.160

OBP          .367         .500         +.133

SLG          .376         .707         +.331

Whatever the reason, Brown found a way to step it up in the postseason, when it counts most. Which brings up the question. Is playoff performance overrated? I'm not saying that what you do in the playoffs shouldn't count towards how good of a player someone is, but I am saying that you can't judge a player solely on their clutch ability or playoff performance. You are just as likely to hit a hot streak in the playoffs, like Brown, or you could just as easily hit a cold streak. Which brings me to the conclusion that maybe the term 'clutch' is overrated. Bobby Brown wasn't necessarily clutch, but he happened to get hot during the playoffs.

There is a time when a player needs to get a hit. And if he does, we usually deem him a 'clutch player.' But most of the time, it's just getting a hit at the right time. It's not like a person with a higher 'clutch rating' will perform much better 'in the clutch' than he does during any other normal at-bat. Was Gibson's game-winning homerun in 1988 clutch? We like to think so, but I like to call it luck. Gibson was hobbled over, walked with a limp, and had no business being in that game. How did he hit the homerun? Was it clutch? Some of it depends on the pitcher, some of it depends on the pitch, but a lot of it depends on luck. Gibson hadn't had a plate appearance during the whole World Series up until that at-bat. Luck had to have played a part in it, not some abstract attribute inside a player, "clutch."

Obviously, some players seem to do a lot better in the playoffs consistently. Derek Jeter is one example. Does that make him clutch? Well, I guess you could call it that, but I'm sure it has to do with some other factors. I would bet that Jeter prepares more for playoff games, both mentally and physically, than he does with regular season games. This, in combination with more pressure on the pitcher, results in Jeter getting more hits in playoff games. He just finds a way to focus and prepare more than his opponent at the time.

Another example that clutch isn't really a good measurement of a player's performance. The player with the second best BA in postseason history is, you guessed it, Jose Offerman. With a .279 career batting average working against him, Offerman has managed to post a .429 career postseason BA. To go along with that, his OBP is .520, compared to his ..361 career regular season number. Does Offerman have more clutch ability? In a word, no. He just happened to hit some hot streaks in the postseason, due to luck or preparation.

An example of a player with great career regular season numbers but poor postseason numbers is none other than Ty Cobb. Cobb, in fact, is the all time leader in career BA. But it's a different story in the postseason.

       Reg Season     Playoffs          Diff

BA           .366         .262         -.104

OBP          .433         .314         -.119

SLG          .512         .354         -.158

Granted, Cobb only had 65 postseason AB, so the results may be a little misleading. But, it's not like Cobb had less clutch ability than a guy like Offerman or Brown. He just happened to get into a cold streak during the playoffs, whether it be because of preparation, opposing pitchers, or just plain bad luck. Whatever the reason, Cobb will never be known as a 'clutch player,' even thought that the term is overused and overrated.

So the next time you see a player get a hit in the crunch time of a game, specifically a playoff or World Series game, consider the numbers before you consider him a 'clutch player.' Clutch may be a formula of 1/3 luck, 1/3 focus and composure, and 1/3 pitching, not a separate attribute.


For comments, questions, suggestions, or whatever, feel free to email me

Fantasy Baseball is Sweet

Every year, I try to have at least one fantasy baseball team. This year is no different than the rest, except for the fact that I had a great draft, something I have bombed the past couple years. I bought my team over at Sportingnews.com. In my opinion, Sportingnews gives you the best bang for your buck. It's only $20 ($25 now, I got an 'early-bird special'), so it's relatively cheap. Plus, it gives you a handy research site for free. Anyways, here is my team.

FYI, 10 team league, 5x5 Rotisserie Rules, 4th pick in the draft.

Pitchers
Mark Prior- I love this guy. I took him with my first pick, fourth overall. Only 23 years old, and already considered one of the top at his position. He had a freakish season last year, especially considering how young he is. 2.43, 18, 245/211.3. Sickening, for a guy who's barely old enough to go out for a drink after the game.

Barry Zito- I got Zito in the 7th round, so in my opinion he was a huge steal. Even though he had a bad year last year (although I'm not sure if you can call a 3.30 ERA and 14 wins a 'bad year'), but if he didn't have the great 2002 campaign and came out with a Cy Young to compare the 2003 season to, you would say he had a very solid year. His K's have also taken a dip, from 8.2/9 in 2001, to 7.1/9 in 2002, to 5.3/9 in 2003. His numbers aren't overpowering, but regardless, I like his chances to 'rebound' this year.

Johan Santana- If you have read anything on Aaron Gleeman, then you know that he loves Santana. Well, I share the same opinion as him. Santana finally earned a starting spot halfway through the 2003 season for the Twins, and he didn't disappoint. He went 12-3 in 18 starts, and averaged over 9.6 K/9 all the while posting a solid 3.07 ERA. All signs point to a breakout year for the 25 year old southpaw.

Vicente Padilla- Another solid pitcher primed for a breakout year. He's only 26, and, like Zito, he's not an overpowering pitcher, but he has a 3.61 career ERA and should get me at least 15 wins.

Matt Mantei- My first closer taken, he isn't in the elite category for closers, but he is definitely in the second tier. He should get me 30 saves and post a decent ERA with a few K's here and there. The only thing that scares me is that he is a big injury risk.

Kip Wells- Why the White Sox ever traded this guy is beyond me (along with Josh Fogg and Sean Lowe for Todd Ritchie, of all people. Todd Ritchie.) He posted a 3.28 ERA last year, and a 3.58 ERA the year before. He won't help me too much in any category, but he definitely won't hurt me, which sometimes is good enough.

Francisco Cordero- Cordero is penciled in as the Rangers closer. Hopefully, his health can hold up and he can give me 25-30 saves, but I'm not holding my breath, since he does play for the Rangers. Without A-Rod, I'd be surprised if they got 20-30 wins.

David Riske- Again, like Cordero, he plays for an awful team. But, he is the official closer, and at worst he'll get me 20 saves, and I'll take all the saves I can get.

Rafael Soriano- He is considered one of the top emerging youngsters in the game, and if he gets a shot in the Mariners' rotation or even as a closer, he could do some damage.

Byung Hyun-Kim- It remains to be seen if Kim will remain in the Boston rotation, but for right now, he is. He always posts a solid ERA and is durable. He should be a solid addition.

Ben Sheets- A former Olympic hero for the States, it remains to be seen if Sheets can be consistent in the majors. He's worth a shot, though, since he does have the potential.


Hitters
C Jason Phillips- Phillips won't even play catcher this year, but he still qualifies there because of his action last year. He had a pretty solid year last year and is a pretty good option for a catcher.

1B Carlos Delgado- A true fantasy stud, Delgado's power numbers are some of the best in the game. He's pretty much a guaranteed 35/110/115 guy at worst, and is average isn't too shabby. And considering I got him in the fifth round, when he went in the first or second in most other drafts, it makes everything even sweeter.

2B Jose Reyes- Truly an outstanding prospect, Reyes broke into the scene last year. He put up solid numbers, but his potential is what drew me. He should steal 20+ bases and score 90+ runs, with a handful of homeruns, if he stays healthy.

3B Corey Koskie- Although he's an injury waiting to happen, Koskie is one of the more consistent players in the game. Hopefully, he still has some speed remaining in him from 2001 when he swiped 27 bags.

SS Edgar Renteria- Renteria had a career year last year and although I'm not expecting quite the same numbers, he still should be a huge fantasy producer. Consistency is his major strength, which is sometimes the best asset of a fantasy player.

1B/3B David Ortiz- Ortiz also had a career year last year, good enough to earn him some MVP votes. He's only 27, so he should be entering the prime of his career. Plus, he plays for my beloved Red Sox.

2B/SS Adam Kennedy- He's a durable, every-day player who should get me 20 steals and a decent amount of runs.

OF Manny Ramirez- ManRam, another fantasy stud. When he tries, he could be at the top of the league in nearly every power category. As it is, he still should get me Delgadoesque numbers, and a great average to boot. Also, I gotta add in the fact that he also plays for the Sox.

OF Brian Giles- Another very consistent player, Giles is often overlooked. He puts up great numbers year in and year out, and I think that he will have a huge season in San Diego. It's not much of a better lineup than Pittsburgh, but it's a little better, so his power numbers should improve some.

OF Jim Edmonds- I cringe every time Edmonds lays out or jumps into a wall for a flyball, but offensively Edmonds is a consistent power threat. If he gets a full season under his belt, which I am not counting on because of his injury history, Edmonds could get 35 homeruns and 100+ RBI. Either way, he should be somewhat close to those numbers.

OF Rocco Baldelli- Baldelli came out of nowhere last year to be a legitamate fantasy threat. He bats for average, steals bases, and hits a homerun here and there. Plus, you can't go wrong with a guy named Rocco.

OF Cliff Floyd- I don't think Floyd will ever have a season like the one he put together in 2001, where he hit 31 homers while stealing 18 and batting .317. But Floyd has potential and he plays in a solid Mets lineup where he should get some decent numbers.

OF Jason Bay- Bay is another promising prospect and he is set to have a breakout year eventually. Why not this year?

OF Juan Encarnacion- A key cog in the Marlins 2003 championship run, Encarnacion is a streaky player who gets his fair share of steals and homeruns. He will be a good addition off the bench to ride during his hot streaks.

3B Shea Hillenbrand- Another guy off the bench who I can use when Koskie is hurt or in a slide. Hillenbrand puts up decent power numbers, and 100 RBI is definitely not out of his range.


My team is built around consistency and youngsters. I am taking some big risks with Prior (on DL to start season, don't know how that will affect him), Edmonds, Reyes, and Koskie, who can all have bad seasons if injuries or inexperience gets to them. But overall, I am happy with my draft. I got a number of steals, like Zito and Delgado, and a fair share of sleepers like Bay and Soriano. We'll see how it turns out, but I am expecting nothing less than first place and a $125 prize.


For comments, questions, suggestions, or whatever, feel free to email me

Boston = Success?

As I was browsing Baseball Reference, I came across some stats that surprised me, but maybe they shouldn't. It's about the Red Sox, my team. When I think of Boston and its history, I think of one thing, and one thing only:1918.

1918. The last time the Sox won the Series. The third longest drought in all of baseball, next to the Chicagos. But, as I look at the numbers, the Red Sox are one of the most successful franchises in baseball.

Historically, besides the World Series tidbit, the Red Sox are in the top third in win percentage and overall wins. Check out the numbers.

FRANCHISE WINS
1. San Francisco Giants (1883-2003) 9871-8390
2. Chicago Cubs (1876-2003) 9667-9130
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (1884-2003) 9542-8658
4. St. Louis Cardinals (1882-2003) 9478-8915
5. Cincinnati Reds (1882-2003) 9371-9029
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (1882-2003) 9350-9012
7. Atlanta Braves (1876-2003) 9347-9418
8. New York Yankees (1901-2003) 8996-6901
9. Philadelphia Phillies (1883-2003) 8505-9729
10. Boston Red Sox (1901-2003) 8165-7753

10th overall in wins, with about 15 less years than the rest of the top 10, minus the Yankees. These 10 teams have dominated baseball since 1903.

World Series champions since 1903
Top 10 in Wins: 75
The Rest: 26

That's a pretty large difference, considering it's 10 teams versus 20 or so. The point is, Boston belongs to a pretty prestigious group. But, the majority of those championships came before 1969, and recently, the rest of the field is catching up. Since 1969 the rest of the field has had 18 World Series champions and the Big Ten has 17. This is the balance that makes baseball more interesting today than 50-100 years ago.

Anyways, I'm getting offtrack. The Red Sox have been successful despite their lack of a certain jewel since 1918. Take a look at this.

FRANCHISE WIN %
1. New York Yankees (1901-2003) 8996-6901 0.566
2. San Francisco Giants (1883-2003) 9871-8390 0.541
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (1998-2003) 524-448 0.539
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (1884-2003) 9542-8658 0.524
5. St. Louis Cardinals (1882-2003) 9478-8915 0.515
6. Chicago Cubs (1876-2003) 9667-9130 0.514
7. Boston Red Sox (1901-2003) 8165-7753 0.513

Seventh in win percentage, but I'm just gonna say sixth, because it's hard to count the D-Backs, with only 6 years under their belt. Nevertheless, the Red Sox are more successful than people may think, they just can't seem to get it done when it really counts. When you ask people about the history of the Red Sox, most people will say they were a disappointment, or unsuccessful. Even though World Series' is a big factor in judging success, if you look at the numbers, the Red Sox are near the top 5 of the most successful franchises in baseball history.

Any way you look at it, Boston still manages to draw a sellout crowd to every home game, no matter who they play or how they are doing at the time. They are also wildly popular, and they are fun to root for. Like me, for example, I don't live in Boston or anywhere near Boston, yet I still follow them closer than any other team and even own some Red Sox memorabilia.

It pains me that the Sox have recently become a laughingstock, for lack of a better term, of baseball. Are they ever gonna win the Series again? That question has been thrown around the baseball universe for 25 years now. So, until they win the World Series again, the Red Sox will always be remembered for not winning. But, as the numbers show, they do win, and they win often.

What happened to Pat Burrell?

Once upon a time, Pat Burrell was one of the most promising youngsters in the big leagues. Drafted #1 overall in the 1998 draft by the Phillies, Burrell was expected to do great things.

And he did. For a while.

Last year was a complete disaster for Burrell. Just check out his numbers, compared to the previous two years.

2001: .258, 27 HR, 89 RBI, 70 R, .346 OBP, .469 SLG
2002: .282, 37 HR, 116 RBI, 96 R .376 OBP, .544 SLG
2003: .209, 21 HR, 64 RBI, 57 R, .309 OBP, .404 SLG

Ouch. Okay, okay...he just had a down year. Maybe, but I doubt it. The change in his numbers are so staggering, it's very hard to call it a 'down year.' What went wrong with Burrell?

In my eyes, it's confidence. I mean, admit it. We all know that Burrell didn't somehow lose his talent or love of the game. He should for all intents and purposes should have had more talent than ever before going into last season. But, somewhere through the course of the 2003 season, Burrell seemed to have lost all confidence. His swing looked lazy. He looked lost at every at-bat. He was almost painful to watch. With nearly a 75 point drop in batting average, a 15 homerun drop, nearly half the RBI's, and a significant decrease in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage, Burrell turned into a future superstar into a future J.D. Drew. He may put up decent numbers again but as of now he looks like he will be another potential superstar to fade into a disappointment.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that Burrell will never have another good season. In fact, he could turn it all around this season and return to his 2002 form. But, a season like he had in 2003 does long-term damage. It will be a wonder if his confidence ever returns.

This may not be too uncommon though. How do you explain how Jason Giambi sunk into a hitting abyss last season? Again, it's not like Giambi lost his talent. It had to have been something from within. Again, people may bring up the fact that he was in a slump, or had a down year. With Giambi, that may be explainable. But, I don't know how his batting average could dip nearly a hundred points in just two years. Maybe he's not as happy at New York as he was at Oakland. No one can say for sure.

So, if you can come out with one thing from this rant, it's that baseball is just as much of a mental game as it is a physical one. Confidence and desire are just as important as strength and speed. Sometimes, these things are overlooked, both by the fans and by the players.

Welcome to my Blog

Hello, and welcome to my 'blog.' I'm Ty, as my header would indicate, and I'm here to write about all things baseball, which is also indicated by my header.

I got this idea from Aaron's Baseball Blog. I will be the first to admit that my stuff isn't as well-written or even as creative as his, but I do my best. Check out his site if you have time, because it is very entertaining.

I will try to update as often as I can. Whether that means daily, weekly, monthly, I'm not sure. But, I will try and have at least 3 or 4 posts a week, but everything depends on my schedule. After all, I still have high school to worry about.

So, enjoy my site, and feel free to email me if you have any questions, comments, suggestions, criticism, or just to tell me what's on your mind. Anything is welcome! Thanks!